Billy Beane is NOT a genius.
Billy Beane is not a genius. It is as simple as that. I can't tell you how many times I've heard, "well if they just followed the genius of Billy Beane we would have more runs, more this, more that." It's become something I constantly roll my eyes to. The fact is Billy Beane is NOT a genius. Sure, Moneyball is a great book - but let me ask you the following questions:
1. How many championships have the A's won using following such a formula?
2. How did the A's do last year?
3. Have the A's even been true consistent contenders up there with the Twins, Sox, Yanks, and Angels?
The answers:
1. 0
2. Terrible after getting rid of their pitching staff that had, by luck, fallen into Billy Beane's hands - too good to be true... but yes he did it... he traded them away... get over it A's fans.
3. Pretty much NOT
Why is it that Billy Beane is called a genius? Because he looks at OBP (on base percentage)? Don't we ALL look at OBP? If you played up growing ball: did you not constantly hear "a walk is as good as a hit."??? I know I did. So right here and now I would like to say: my little league coaches - geniuses, my JV coaches - geniuses, my summer league coaches - geniuses, me (as a coach) - genius.
In fact, we can all be geniuses if we agree that getting on base is what is important in baseball.
"But, but, but he says more than that"
I don't care. Billy Beane is overrated and his ideas are too stuck in statistics that he misses on field reality and the importance of team chemistry and in the idiosyncrasies of the best teams in baseball.
It really is as simple as this: Billy Beane has a system where he looks at statistics. All managers have a system where they look at statistics. Billy Beane is not a genius.
Come on say it with me: Billy Beane has a system where he looks at statistics. All managers have a system where they look at statistics. Billy Beane is not a genius.
At least not any more of a genius than my coaches were, or I am.
posted by Lowie @ 10:59 AM
3 comments
3 Comments:
If you never read the book, you shouldn't judge either it - or Billy.
The A's system was developed to maximize returns on a minimal budget by applying scientific method - not simply looking at OBP as you say.
The goal of the A's system was to build a team that could get enough runs to win enough games to get into the post season, and to do it on a shoestring budget.
Beane and Michael Lewis says in his book says - it can work over 160+ games, but the postseason is a different game. Hardly news there.
And no, plate discipline isn't universal (Just look at Wiley Mo's at-bat today.)
RK
so how many years have they made the post season on such a budget?
one? two? with such a system?
big whoop so did the friggin dbacks and padres ... two people say it works... so who cares...
plus she totally didnt diss the book she said its great... thing is it just doesnt work... so you're pretty much wrong dude.
wicked post. i totally agree with you... billy beane is overrated. The best players in the league know it. Theres something to be said about investment and minor leagues and chemistry and intelligent trades... Beane is not a great gm - he is mediocre at best and is being called a genius when he hasn't even put across a championship
-james
Take the same approach with a decent budget... (and you have the whitesox?) or an extraordinary budget (RedSox)...
throw in the big hitter and small game components to help at the end of the year...
That's the recipe 'dude'
He defied the odds - everyone saying small-budget teams can't compete, salary caps are needed, etc. He didn't fool Paul Volker, who said there are substantial "market inefficiencies" - Beane just worked those inefficiencies.
What I liked best was the whole concept applied (by his techie, not beane himself) of taking advantage of the irrational decisions of a market. In this case, the market for ball players.
Any advantage in a market economy dissapears quickly as others figure it out - and so you can only get a couple of years out of any such advantage.
RK
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